Biden and Trump may initiate quiet diplomacy with Putin to safeguard Ukraine's energy, according to FT. Is there a chance for this to happen?

After the victory of Donald Trump, it seems that Russian leader Vladimir Putin has lost all motivation to negotiate with the current U.S. President Joe Biden and his team. The newly elected American leader is expected to offer much more intriguing proposals than the Democrats. Meanwhile, during this period of relative turmoil in the White House, the Kremlin could escalate the situation in Ukraine—such as attempting to cripple its energy sector. This is reflected in a column for the Financial Times by Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center in Berlin.

In Western capitals, the greatest fear is that Trump will drastically reduce support for Ukraine against Russian aggression, according to Gabuev. He has promised to quickly end the war, and his close associates have suggested proposals that would allow for a freeze of hostilities along current front lines.

This would leave 20 percent of Ukrainian territory occupied without any significant assurance that Russia would not invade later.

At the same time, a push for a ceasefire does not imply that the U.S. will accept Putin's maximalist demand for the effective subjugation of Ukraine to Russia, as stated in the FT article.

Even in the presence of an imperfect ceasefire regime and aside from the slippery issue of Kyiv’s NATO membership, the U.S. could take measures to ensure that Ukraine survives as a sovereign state, including providing arms and training, as well as investing in Kyiv's conventional deterrence capabilities. If applied consistently over a prolonged period following the cessation of hostilities, these measures could make the cost of a new war against Ukraine prohibitively high for Russia, the expert emphasizes.

However, according to Gabuev, Putin may also have reasons to temporarily agree to an imperfect peace deal. The Kremlin's military machine needs a timeout to rearm and restore its offensive capabilities. The Kremlin may hope that once Trump can claim the mantle of peacemaker, his priorities will shift, his administration will be stretched in various directions, Ukraine will remain in a state of gradual decay, and Europeans will be too divided to take the initiative in providing sufficient support to Kyiv.

"Trump's election removes Putin's incentives to significantly engage with the current administration in the time that remains. Putin hopes to get a better deal from Trump, if not an ideal one. The Biden administration has few, if any, 'carrots' to compel him to agree to a deal that is better for Kyiv than a potential deal mediated by Trump," the expert believes.

Furthermore, Gabuev argues that the interim period in the White House creates many of its own risks: for example, the temptation for Putin to destroy what remains of Ukraine's energy infrastructure this winter, thereby creating more leverage for future negotiations. Eliminating this threat requires quiet diplomacy with the Kremlin, which could involve both the Biden and Trump teams, the expert suggests.

In the Kremlin, there are expectations that Trump's presidency will be a gift for the Russian Federation, both in Ukraine and beyond. Publicly, the Russian leadership remains cautious about its expectations for the new administration. For instance, if Trump tries to lower global oil prices to $50 per barrel, it could create long-term challenges for Putin's regime. However, the Kremlin may hope that the obstacles Trump creates for Washington's European allies will compensate for potential drawbacks, writes Gabuev.

Even if the gunfire in Ukraine ceases, the fundamental reasons for the confrontation between Moscow and the West will remain. Trump's victory has once again confirmed Putin's belief that the West is so politically unstable that policies can radically change with each electoral cycle (since Putin himself plans to remain in power at least until 2036). Thus, distrust of the West will persist.

"The sad truth is that the fight against the West has become an organizational principle of Putin's regime and has created too many beneficiaries to abandon it anytime soon. Whether Trump or not, Russia's foreign policy will be driven by anti-Americanism at least as long as Putin is in the Kremlin," the expert concludes.

It is worth noting that the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) suggests that Putin sees Trump as an opportunity for a "reset" of relations with the U.S. according to the Kremlin's script. At the same time, according to Senator Marco Rubio (who is among the unofficial candidates for the position of U.S. Secretary of State under the 47th president), Trump is an advocate for ending the war, but that does not mean he is a "fan of Putin."

Putin speaks more frequently about ending the war, but on his terms

Press Secretary of Russian leader Vladimir Putin, Dmitry Peskov, commented on Donald Trump's victory in the U.S. elections. According to him, the Kremlin chief does not plan to congratulate Trump just yet. At the same time, he stated that ending the war in Ukraine “cannot be done overnight”—this was his reaction to the Republican's promises to end all wars.

Russia allegedly seeks to resolve the conflict against Ukraine and is reportedly ready to seek and agree to reasonable compromises. However, no exchange formats or negotiations with Kyiv are currently taking place. Moscow dictates that the outcome of any negotiations must be beneficial to the RF.

At the BRICS summit, the Russian leader claimed that he supposedly received a secret proposal for negotiations between the countries from Ukraine. Allegedly, this proposal was relayed to the Russians by representatives from Turkey. The Kremlin leader assured that he supposedly agreed to it immediately, but Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky rejected the peace proposal the very next day. Furthermore, Putin added that Zelensky's plan for victory supposedly undermines all paths leading to peace.