CNN speculated on a potential deal between Trump and Putin regarding Ukraine, suggesting Crimea might be exchanged for the country's deoccupation.
Donald Trump, elected as the 47th President of the United States, aims to present himself as a significant negotiator, hence his interest in ending the war between Russia and Ukraine. Achieving this will require compromises from both warring parties. CNN has attempted to predict what a potential agreement might look like, suggesting that America might propose that Ukraine relinquish Crimea while persuading Russia to return some of the other illegally occupied territories.
The publication recalls Trump’s "dubious" promise to end the war in a day. Journalists note that this did not happen. Nevertheless, Trump's chances of halting the war are not entirely nonexistent. There are preconditions for this—issues on both sides.
In particular, the Republican Congress is unlikely to approve a new military aid package for Ukraine. On the other hand, the fact that Russia is sending North Korean soldiers to fight against Ukrainians indicates that Russian leader Vladimir Putin is reluctant to issue a mass mobilization order, which would certainly not enhance his popularity. Thus, he may have his own interests in ending the war.
"Russia will retain Crimea, which it seized in 2014, while Ukraine will regain some territories in eastern Ukraine that Russia occupied. In return, Ukraine will not join NATO but will receive security guarantees from the U.S., similar to Japan," CNN predicts.
Journalists speculate that neither Russia nor Ukraine will be satisfied with the elements of this agreement. However, the alternative is "eternal war," in which nearly a million people on both sides have already been killed or wounded, CNN reminds.
Thus, the new U.S. president, by moving towards this scenario, may limit or even cease U.S. support for Ukraine in its war against Russia. But this is not the entire forecast: Trump, according to CNN, is also likely to adopt a skeptical stance towards alliances like NATO and withdraw from international agreements made with dozens of other countries, such as the Paris Climate Agreement. Putin would also welcome a weakened NATO.
"Given Trump's peculiar romance with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Russia is likely to feel empowered to continue its efforts to undermine NATO countries, knowing that Trump may not respond," CNN writes.
What Trump Says About the War in Ukraine
Volodymyr Zelensky's "Victory Plan" partially considered the arrival of Donald Trump to power in the U.S. This involves the fourth and fifth points—access for Western partners to Ukraine's natural resources and the replacement of some American troops, as noted by FT. According to their information, the newly elected U.S. president has shown interest in these points.
Zelensky is currently seeking an opportunity to meet with Trump as soon as possible to sway the Republican to his side, ensuring his support in negotiations with Russia. Specifically, one of Zelensky's proposals, claims Welt, is to grant Trump the right of choice in the future regarding who can invest in Ukraine.
At the same time, Republican Senator Marco Rubio (Florida), who is expected to take the position of Secretary of State under Trump, referred to Ukraine's struggle against Russian invaders as a "stalemate war" that needs to be stopped. He noted that Donald Trump, elected as the 47th President of the United States, desires an end to the war, but that does not make him a "fan of Putin."
President-elect Donald Trump may offer further weapon supplies to Ukraine in exchange for freezing the war. Stability along the entire front line, according to the American administration's plan, would be ensured by European forces. The process of Ukraine's NATO membership, like the war, will be "frozen," The Telegraph reports, citing anonymous sources. This is supposedly one of the options in Trump's "plan" regarding Ukraine. However, as the publication points out, Trump has never explained in detail what his plan entails.
Will Trump Pressure Zelensky for Negotiations with Russia?
Meanwhile, media reports that Trump wants to cut aid to Ukraine and bring Kyiv and Moscow to the negotiating table. However, Zelensky has made it clear that forcing Ukraine into a peace deal on unfavorable terms will not work even for Trump. The Ukrainian leader stated that in Ukraine's case, coercion in the style of "sit and listen" has not worked and will not work.
Moreover, Zelensky has repeatedly warned that Ukraine does not intend to concede territory in exchange for security. Even Western media, which probe the situation and claim that Ukraine is allegedly ready for territorial concessions, indicate that Kyiv is only willing to consider a real invitation to NATO in this scenario, rather than abstract security guarantees.