Macron is urgently traveling to Poland to urge the Polish people to send troops to Ukraine, according to reports.

French President Emmanuel Macron is set to arrive in Warsaw on Thursday, December 12. The publication Rzeczpospolita claims that the purpose of the visit is to discuss a European peacekeeping mission plan intended to ensure Ukraine's security and uphold the ceasefire. In Poland, there is a belief that their country is an indispensable element of this scenario.

Characteristic formulations are found in the statements made by Rzeczpospolita on December 10 regarding the potential deployment of troops in Ukraine. They assert that it concerns a contingent that "will preserve Ukraine's sovereignty within the framework of a possible Trump-Putin agreement." In this way, the Poles deny Ukraine's agency and preemptively exclude it from the peace negotiations. The text is filled with grandiose claims such as "Macron wants to save Ukraine with the help of Poland," and "Poland's participation in the peacekeeping mission is crucial," among others.

The publication reminds us that on November 27, Macron called on leaders from Scandinavian and Baltic countries, as well as Poland, to discuss the idea of sending troops to Ukraine. Eli Tenenbaum, an expert working on the project for such a mission, explains to Rzeczpospolita that the Western contingent in Ukraine could consist of five brigades (approximately 40,000 soldiers). Poland could take command of one of them, the expert believes.

As Rzeczpospolita's Kamila Grand, NATO's Deputy Secretary-General until 2022, explained, there are three ways to provide security guarantees to Ukraine. The first is the "German" model: the acceptance of a country's invitation to NATO even without the final establishment of its borders, similar to what happened with Germany in 1955. However, the U.S. does not favor this, and neither does Germany.

The second scenario is the "Israeli model": massive arms supplies to Ukraine even after a peace agreement is made. This is questionable given the budgetary difficulties in both the U.S. and Europe. The third is the "Korean" model: an international peacekeeping mission that has maintained a demarcation line between South and North Korea for over 70 years. It is based on this "Korean" model, incorporating elements of the first and second, that security guarantees for Kyiv will be grounded, Grand believes.

During a meeting on Monday in Kyiv with Friedrich Merz, the leader of the CDU/CSU, who is likely to become Germany's future chancellor, Zelensky stated for the first time that in anticipation of NATO guarantees, such a peacekeeping mission could ensure the security of his country, as noted by the Polish publication.

Due to the rapid growth of military potential and Poland's geographical position, it is becoming a crucial element of such a plan. This explains Macron's visit to Warsaw, Grand states. In her opinion, the more countries participate in such a peacekeeping mission, the greater the chances that Russia will refrain from launching a new attack on Ukraine.

It is worth noting that Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk on December 10 commented on negotiations for a ceasefire in Ukraine, which are also actively discussed within NATO. He stated that Poland would be an active participant in the peace talks that could start in the coming months.

Ukraine "may consider" Macron's idea of deploying troops

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky insists that an invitation to NATO is the only security guarantee option that the country agrees to. However, he mentioned that Ukraine "may consider" Macron's idea of introducing Western troops into the country while such an invitation is not yet available (and perhaps during the period between receiving the invitation and the actual accession of the country to the Alliance).

"If there is a pause while Ukraine is not in NATO, then who guarantees us any security? We can think about and work on Emmanuel's (Macron) position. He suggested that some part of the troops from one or another country be present on Ukrainian territory to guarantee our security until Ukraine is in NATO," Zelensky stated.

At the same time, in his view, Ukraine must have a clear understanding of when it will be in the EU and when it will be in NATO. With such a future in mind, the presence of European troops would be "very effective guarantees," the president believes.

What is known about possible scenarios for peace negotiations

Various international leaders discuss different scenarios for ending the war. The Israeli or Finnish models, which propose different approaches to resolving the conflict, are being considered. Additionally, realistic scenarios for ending the war are being prepared in the U.S.. According to Politico, Ukraine will find it challenging to agree to any compromise that leaves it vulnerable.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, during discussions regarding potential negotiations with Russia, stated that the main obstacle to achieving peace in Ukraine is the individual representing the Russian Federation. He noted that currently, Russia does not desire peace. Zelensky also believes that Ukraine should approach negotiations from a strengthened position with the involvement of partner countries.