Peace talks: Politico outlines all possible scenarios for ending the war.
Ukraine once again declares to the world its desire for security guarantees through NATO membership or other similar alternatives. Meanwhile, Russia remains unyielding, attempting to stall peace negotiations and ultimately reject all U.S. proposals to buy time for maximum advancement in Ukraine. International leaders are discussing a variety of ideas that could bring peace to Ukraine, such as the Israeli or Finnish models, which offer different approaches to resolving the conflict.
Although Ukraine finds it challenging to agree to any compromise that would leave it vulnerable. This is reported by Politico, which analyzes all the ideas currently available regarding the cessation of the war in Ukraine.
Main Ideas for Ceasefire from Politico
1. Ukraine’s Goals. The primary military objective for Kyiv is to restore the country’s borders to those of 2014, which involves regaining control over eastern cities like Donetsk and Luhansk, as well as Crimea. Kyiv also seeks security guarantees—in the form of NATO membership or solid assurances from its allies—to ensure that the Kremlin does not attack again.
"If the conflict is frozen without any strong position for Ukraine, then Putin will come in two, three, five years… he will return and destroy us completely and utterly," Zelensky said at a press conference on Sunday, December 1.
In October, Zelensky outlined his five-point victory plan: an invitation to NATO, an increase in weapons without restrictions on their use, the ability to deter a future Russian attack, the development of Ukraine's economic resources alongside allies, and strengthening Europe's security post-war.
Zelensky also has a 10-point peace plan that addresses issues such as nuclear security, food and energy security, the release of all prisoners, restoring borders, withdrawing Russian troops, accountability for war crimes, environmental protection, security guarantees, and a signed agreement to end the conflict. Zelensky has traveled the world with his plans and received warm words of encouragement from many European, American, and other allied officials. However, NATO has yet to extend an invitation to join.
2. Russia’s Goals. Russia's official military objectives have not changed since February 24, 2022. An informant previously provided a detailed analysis of all the conditions set by Kremlin propagandists, which are unrealistic in substance.
3. The Brazil-China Plan. China and Brazil presented a joint proposal for peace negotiations in May. Their initiative involves freezing the battlefield without escalations and provocations; direct dialogue and de-escalation leading to a ceasefire, after which an international peace conference would take place; humanitarian aid and prisoner exchanges; no use of weapons of mass destruction; no attacks on nuclear power plants; and enhancing international cooperation.
A group of 17 countries has joined the China-Brazil initiative. Turkey is the sole NATO member in the group. Initially, Zelensky called the plan "destructive" as it did not demand the withdrawal of Russian troops. However, the head of the President's Office, Andriy Yermak, stated in October that Zelensky would be open to incorporating elements into Ukraine's own efforts.
4. Other Ideas. Officials are also discussing alternative ideas on how the war could be ended. These may not be genuine peace plans but rather ways of thinking about how to build relations between Ukraine and Russia to permanently cease hostilities.
5. The Israeli Model. In light of resistance from countries like Germany regarding rapid NATO membership for Ukraine, Western diplomats and even U.S. President Joe Biden have suggested the idea of copying the Israeli model. Israel is not formally part of a defense alliance like NATO; rather, it is a close ally of the U.S. and many European countries that supply a vast amount of weaponry and provide diplomatic support. Israel has also developed its own weapons manufacturing industry, which is a world leader.
This has the advantage of not binding Ukraine to an alliance that could drag other countries into war with nuclear Russia. However, the model has significant downsides. Ukraine would risk becoming a country living under constant threat of war. Although this has not prevented Israel from becoming a story of economic success, the scale of the threat faced by Kyiv is much greater and could deter investments, leaving Ukraine a fragile country unable to stand on its own. The model could be softened if the EU allowed Ukraine to join. However, some fear that an unstable and heavily armed Ukraine could be dangerous.
"How can we arm a country at our borders to the teeth, not knowing who will be its future leader and whether it will remain our partner?" one EU diplomat asked.
Ukraine would prefer to be in NATO or receive reliable security guarantees from its allies. However, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova warned that supplying weapons to Ukraine "has the potential for uncontrollable escalation".
6. The German Model. Northern European countries suggested that the division of Germany during the Cold War, when the western part joined NATO while the east was under Soviet control, could serve as a model for Ukraine. Western Ukraine would join the West and potentially NATO, while the Russian-occupied provinces in the east (for now) would remain outside. This idea now seems to be supported by Zelensky.
"If we want to stop the hot phase of the war, we need to bring under NATO's umbrella the territory of Ukraine that we control," he told Sky News over the weekend.
The Kremlin is adamant that no part of Ukraine can join the alliance. Ukraine in NATO is an "unacceptable threat to the existence of Russia," Peskov stated.
7. The Finnish Model. In 1939, the USSR invaded Finland, forcing it to concede some territories and agree to remain neutral to avoid complete absorption by Moscow. The country remained part of the West during the Cold War but with limited sovereignty and an economy tied to the Soviet Union. Finland finally abandoned its neutrality last year and joined NATO in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The idea circulates in some think tanks and has found some popularity in Berlin, although German officials have distanced themselves from this concept. What’s the problem? - Finland considers it a terrible idea.
"Ukraine was neutral before they were invaded by Russia. That is certainly not something I would impose on Ukraine. Definitely not as a first alternative," said Finnish Foreign Minister Elina Valtonen last month.
NATO Secretary General Unlikely to Discuss Ukraine's Membership in the Alliance
Russian President Vladimir Putin is inclined to continue the war, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte stated. He emphasized that the Alliance is currently focused on discussing assistance to Ukraine, rather than its membership. Meanwhile, Ukraine insists that only full NATO membership will serve as an effective deterrent against Russian aggression.
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiha even brought the original (Ukrainian copy) of the Budapest Memorandum to the NATO summit in Brussels (Belgium) on December 3, which supposedly guaranteed Ukraine's security in exchange for giving up nuclear weapons. The Ukrainian Foreign Minister reminded that the memorandum did not stop Russian aggression and stated that the country urgently needs at least 20 new Western air defense systems to protect against Russia.
Meanwhile, several countries in the Alliance, including the U.S., Germany, and Hungary, oppose the idea of inviting Ukraine to NATO. France and the United Kingdom, on the other hand, have supported Ukraine.