Russia could launch an attack on a NATO country during a lull in the fighting in Ukraine, according to Politico.

The Russian Federation may attempt to seize part of Estonia. An attack could occur during a possible pause in the fighting in Ukraine. The city of Narva, located between Estonia and Russia, could become the "starting point of World War III." About a quarter of the city's residents are ethnic Russians, and Tallinn is concerned that this could serve as a pretext for invasion, as seen in other countries.

According to Politico, Narva, squeezed along the border of Estonia with Russia, "is at the center of efforts to counter ongoing provocations from Moscow" - ranging from jamming satellite navigation to stolen border demarcation buoys, propaganda, surveillance drones, and the buzzing of airships.

"We do not intend to start World War III, but we see constant attempts to provoke us into doing something that would have a greater impact," said Egert Belitšev, the Director General of the Estonian Police and Border Guard Board.

Politico emphasizes that about a quarter of Estonia's 1.4 million population are ethnic Russians. Most of them hold Estonian citizenship and feel strong ties to Estonia, but the Kremlin knows how to exploit ethnic differences to claim a special role in protecting the Russian diaspora. This has been done in Georgia and Moldova, serving as a pretext for the invasion of Ukraine. Journalists express concern that "the Kremlin may play the same card and try to seize eastern Estonia, which has a large ethnic Russian population."

"And then force NATO to initiate a global war in response. A lack of reaction would show that NATO's Article 5 on collective defense is meaningless," Politico describes a possible Russian plan.

Furthermore, to support the possibility of such a plan, the publication recalls that Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin even suggested in 2022, shortly after Russia began its invasion of Ukraine, that Narva is historically part of Russia. The city has a population of 56,000, with 96% speaking Russian, and a third holding Russian passports.

"Tallinn's fear is what will happen after the war in Ukraine ends, and that Russia will use any pause in combat to attack a vulnerable NATO country," the publication writes.

Politico adds that for Estonia, the question of how to deal with its large eastern neighbor is existential. The smallest Baltic country is already spending 3.4% of its GDP on defense and plans to increase this figure to 3.7% next year, far surpassing larger EU countries.

"When an invasion occurs, it is already too late. We need to be familiar with the early warning system and know in advance that if a high-ranking official crosses the border, we will respond immediately," said Estonia's Minister of Defense Hanno Pevkur.

Amid these threats, NATO has deployed around 900 British troops at the Tapa airbase along with French forces. The British government has committed to keeping its 4th Brigade Combat Group at a state of operational readiness. However, due to limited resources, the Alliance does not plan to significantly increase its forces in Estonia.

Belitšev emphasized that continuous monitoring of the 338-kilometer border with Russia is essential for the country's security. He stated that Estonia's NATO allies must be prepared for potential events in this region, which he describes as "the end of the free world."

Estonia has a long and bitter history of being a Russian colony. It regained its independence only in 1991, when the Soviet Union collapsed, and since then has rushed to strengthen its ties with the EU and NATO.

Estonia is also assisting Ukraine

Estonia has provided Ukraine with military assistance exceeding 500 million euros. In digital terms, this amounts to 1.4% of its gross domestic product (GDP).

At the end of November, Estonia announced it was preparing another military aid package for Ukraine. This includes naval uniforms, surveillance devices, sights, ballistic protection equipment, and various types of ammunition.

Previously, Estonia had delivered Javelin anti-tank missiles, howitzers, artillery shells, anti-tank mines, anti-tank grenade launchers, mortars, vehicles, communication equipment, and field hospitals to Ukraine, including in collaboration with Germany, the Netherlands, Norway, and Iceland. Since the onset of the full-scale war in Ukraine, Estonia has also organized training for over 1,500 Ukrainian soldiers both in Estonia and abroad.

Estonia's Prime Minister Kaja Kallas has called on NATO countries to increase their support for Ukraine in order to ensure victory over Russia. According to her, this is possible if the West allocates at least 1% of its GDP annually, as Tallinn does. Estonia sees itself as a frontline state, through which the enemy is preparing to expand its aggression against the West. She stated that defeating Russia in its aggressive war is vital for Europe's security.