Russia could capture half of the Baltic states within 10 days, according to a potential scenario described by the media.

If Russia were to hypothetically attack NATO, starting with the Baltic countries, the Alliance would require at least 10 days to invoke Article 5. During this time, the forces stationed in the Baltic states would suffer significant losses. Latvia and at least part of Lithuania would be devastated and occupied by Russian forces.

This is reported by the publication BILD, citing the results of a military simulation developed by the Center on New Generation Warfare. The simulation depicts a potential Russian attack on NATO's eastern flank in 2027.

"In this computer military 'game,' former high-ranking military officials participated, including U.S. Generals Philip Breedlove and Ben Hodges. The purpose of the simulation was to model and analyze NATO's response to a hypothetical Russian offensive in order to better understand the alliance's capabilities and develop strategies to defend the Baltic states," the publication notes.

The scenario considered in the simulation is one of the most dangerous and likely scenarios for the Baltic countries. It could occur within the next three years, with the primary defense in this area being the German Bundeswehr. Currently, it has only 800 soldiers deployed there, but NATO plans to increase the contingent to 5,000 personnel and 44 tanks by 2027.

"According to the scenario, in the worst-case development, it would take ten days before NATO countries invoked Article 5 regarding the collective defense of the Alliance and sent reinforcements to the affected Baltic countries and the Bundeswehr forces stationed there. This is ten days during which the Baltic states would remain without external assistance until Poland and other allies intervened," the publication states.

The scenario suggests that it would take Russia four days to completely occupy Latvia. On the fifth day, the Kremlin would attack Lithuania from three sides – from occupied Latvia, Belarus, and Kaliningrad, forcing Lithuania and its allies to retreat. By the 10th day of the war, Lithuania "would be devastated and partially occupied." The scenario projected losses for Lithuania of 17 tanks, 145 armored personnel carriers, and 3,650 soldiers, while Russian occupiers would lose 411 tanks, 1,019 armored vehicles, and 11,420 personnel, dead.

The authors of the study indicate that this scenario could be avoided if the defense budgets of NATO member countries were increased to 4% of GDP. Additionally, allies should deploy as many forces as possible on the eastern flank, including combat helicopters. However, the most crucial step is to urgently develop a rapid response mechanism for such situations, as 10 days is far too long.

NATO aims to develop a new strategy regarding Russia

Relations between NATO and Moscow have reached a critical point following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Despite this, the Alliance steadfastly adheres to the "Founding Act" signed with Russia in 1997, six years after the collapse of the USSR. This document called for joint efforts to build a stable and peaceful Europe. The NATO-Russia Council, which served as a platform for security cooperation, has not held meetings since 2022, and relations between the parties have been deteriorating for an extended period.

Therefore, NATO countries are now attempting to formulate new approaches to cooperation with Russia. According to an unnamed source from the U.S. government, it is time to develop a new strategy that considers the interests of all allies. Currently, a specific draft of the new strategy is not yet under discussion, as NATO is focused on gathering opinions from all 32 member countries.

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