Scholz visits Kyiv while Baerbock is in China: why Germany is intensifying its involvement in the war and peace efforts concerning Ukraine.

The unexpected visit of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz to Kyiv on December 2 took place just before the early parliamentary elections in Germany, scheduled for February 23, 2025. The issue of Ukraine is of great significance in this electoral campaign, which explains why the German chancellor set foot on Ukrainian soil for the first time since 2022. Political scientists shared this insight with Informator. They also clarified whether Scholz intends to pressure Kyiv regarding peace negotiations and why Europeans are waiting for Donald Trump's return to the White House in this context.

Peace Visits by German Politicians

On Monday, December 2, Chancellor Olaf Scholz arrived in Kyiv for an unannounced visit. The newspaper Bild, citing sources, reported that during his visit, the German leader aims to understand, in a "strictly confidential conversation," how Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky assesses the situation in Ukraine and what peace conditions the Ukrainian society is prepared to accept.

"Nothing should be decided over the heads of Ukrainians," said a source from the publication.

It is noted that Scholz's trip to Ukraine was planned before the onset of the governmental crisis in Germany and the split within the ruling coalition. The chancellor wanted his visit to occur after the U.S. elections and before the inauguration of the newly elected president Donald Trump, which will take place in January.

This was Olaf Scholz's first visit to Ukraine in two and a half years. It was reported that he would announce a new military aid package from Germany amounting to 650 million euros.

Later, at a joint press conference with Zelensky, Scholz announced that Germany would provide Ukraine with the sixth IRIS-T missile system and Sea King helicopters. He also confirmed that Ukraine would receive Patriot launchers and Gepard self-propelled anti-aircraft systems as early as December. Additionally, in 2025, Germany will supply the Armed Forces of Ukraine with howitzers, combat, and reconnaissance drones. Scholz promised that arms supplies would continue next year and would be "as strong as before."

Simultaneously with Scholz's trip to Ukraine, German Foreign Minister Annalen Baerbock visited China. She stated that the peace process is one of her visit's objectives.

"To protect our own German and European security, it is crucial to support Ukraine, and equally important to engage in a peace process worldwide, which is why I am here in China today," Baerbock said in Beijing.

The head of the German Foreign Ministry already met with her Chinese counterpart Wang Yi. After their meeting, Baerbock stated that Russian leader Vladimir Putin is dragging Southeast Asia into the war against Ukraine. She referred to the involvement of North Korean soldiers in the fighting.

Baerbock advocated for China's participation in stopping the war in Ukraine. According to her, Germany and China view this "from different perspectives," but the minister emphasized that "an honest peace process is needed more than ever."

On December 2, Russia Also Spoke About Peace

Journalists from the publication Kommersant reported in an article dated December 2 that the Kremlin is preparing the Russian regional authorities, and through them, the population, for the end of the war in Ukraine. It is reported that the administration of Russian leader Vladimir Putin is concerned that any outcome of the so-called special military operation (SVO) is perceived by Russians as a victory. Meanwhile, Moscow seemingly has no doubt that Russia will at least retain the already occupied Ukrainian territories.

The article states that the expectations of "victory," which are to be formed among the Russian populace, resemble Donald Trump's peace plan (as it is portrayed by the press, since, as Informator reminds, Trump himself has not made any specific statements about it) and the conditions under which Ukraine is allegedly willing to negotiate with Russia. Separately, the Kremlin is worried about the return of the occupiers home. Authorities are advised to prepare and devise ways to adapt these individuals, who are accustomed to war, violence, and very high salaries, which they will not see in ordinary Russian life. In particular, Putin wants to prevent "SVO participants" from turning to crime.

Informator reminds that on November 29, Volodymyr Zelensky, in an interview with Sky News, made a new statement regarding the "surrender" of Ukrainian territories. The head of state declared his readiness to end the hot phase of the war on the condition that the government-controlled part of Ukrainian territory would be placed under NATO's umbrella. In his view, this would allow for later negotiations on the return of occupied territories "through diplomatic means." At the same time, the invitation to the Alliance should recognize Ukraine's internationally recognized borders, Zelensky stated.

PR or Ceasefire? Why Scholz Really Came to Ukraine

Due to these peace statements from German politicians that emerged throughout the day, there is an impression that a new wave of pressure on Ukraine regarding negotiations with Russia is to be expected. However, as explained in a comment to Informator by political technologist Oleksiy Holobutskiy, this is not currently on the agenda. According to him, "everyone is waiting for Trump" (meaning the EU is anticipating the inauguration of the newly elected U.S. president Donald Trump, who has repeatedly promised to quickly end the war in Ukraine - ed.).

The political technologist explained that the purpose of the German leader's visit is related to the elections in Germany. The parliamentary electoral campaign is about to kick off.

"Therefore, of course, they have become more active. The topic of Ukraine is quite important for Germany," Holobutskiy says.

The political technologist also mentioned Olaf Scholz's rivalry with the leader of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) Friedrich Merz. It is forecasted that Merz will become the new chancellor of Germany.

"He (Merz - ed.) has a clear position on Ukraine. And Scholz opposes that position," Holobutskiy emphasized.

It is worth noting that in November, Merz stated that if elected, he would be ready to have a phone conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin regarding the resolution of the war in Ukraine. He specified that he would be prepared to issue an ultimatum to Russia regarding the cessation of hostilities. If the conditions are not met within a day, Merz is ready to provide Ukraine with Taurus cruise missiles and authorize strikes on Russian territory. Recently, Scholz accused him of an overly risky policy regarding support for Ukraine, particularly concerning possible deliveries of long-range Taurus missiles.

Germany, under Olaf Scholz's leadership, currently refuses to transfer Taurus cruise missiles to Ukraine. This position has not changed even after the UK, France, and the US provided their long-range weaponry.

"For him (Scholz - ed.) this is an electoral issue. To show that he is a brave man, capable of traveling to Kyiv. Secondly, this is indeed an important topic for Germany," the expert explained the purpose of the chancellor's visit to Kyiv.

Similar views are shared by political scientist Volodymyr Volya. He told Informator that Olaf Scholz's visit does not prepare Ukraine for the surrender of territories and negotiations. He emphasized that the trip took place in the context of the elections.

"Scholz has repeatedly emphasized in recent weeks that Germany will support Ukraine as long as needed and is ready to back Ukraine until it is ready for negotiations on favorable terms. In fact, this is support from the ruling coalition, from Chancellor Scholz as the leader of the Social Democratic Party of Germany in the context of the upcoming Bundestag elections," the expert stated.

Political scientist Petro Oleshchuk commented to Informator that the visits of Olaf Scholz and Annalena Baerbock on December 2 are connected to the preparation for Donald Trump's assumption of the U.S. presidency. He believes that EU leaders will also want to engage in the peace process in Ukraine, which Trump has repeatedly mentioned. However, the expert also emphasizes that it is still too early to talk about a ceasefire.

"As soon as Trump announced his desire to start peace negotiations and end the war as soon as possible, he already appointed a special representative on this issue, it is obvious that Europeans are orienting towards this and are eager to be part of this process too... I would not rush with any ideas about the surrender of territories and similar matters. It should be understood that for Vladimir Putin, the surrender of territory is not a key (factor - ed.). That is, American politicians believe that if some territorial ambitions of Putin are satisfied, it will be possible to settle the war and receive the Nobel Peace Prize," Oleshchuk stated.

In the political scientist's opinion, after the start of more serious consultations with Russia, the U