Trump may reduce aid to Ukraine and pressure Kyiv into negotiations, according to The Hill.
The return of Donald Trump, who has been elected as the new President of the USA, could significantly alter the situation for Ukraine. One of the major threats to Ukraine may be changes in US policy regarding support for Ukrainian sovereignty. Specifically, Trump might reduce assistance to Ukraine and pressure Kyiv into negotiations.
This is reported by The Hill. The publication notes that Trump is known for his sympathies towards Russian President Vladimir Putin, while simultaneously displaying a negative attitude towards Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky. This could lead to shifts in US policy, including potential cuts to military aid for Ukraine aimed at compelling Kyiv to negotiate with Moscow.
Trump has repeatedly shown his affinity for Putin while expressing disdain for Zelensky. This is partly related to the fact that the Ukrainian president did not support Trump during the political scandal that led to his first impeachment. Under these circumstances, Kyiv may find itself under significant pressure from Washington.
This approach, as noted in The Hill, reflects the views of some of Trump’s former advisors who support the "Russian version" of events and believe that NATO is the primary factor leading to the war. Additionally, some members of Trump’s team advocate for even more decisive support for Ukraine, including lifting restrictions on the use of American weapons for strikes on Russian territory, which could significantly alter the balance of power.
If the US decides to limit its assistance to Ukraine, it could have serious repercussions for European politics. The European Union will face a tough choice: whether to intervene to fill the vacuum created by the US withdrawal of support and quickly strengthen its aid mechanisms for Ukraine, or risk that the expansion of Russian influence becomes irreversible.
According to the publication, the lack of support from the US would give Putin greater freedom of action and could signal the onset of new military aggressions. History shows that whenever Russia encounters a lack of decisive Western response — as was the case in Georgia in 2008, Ukraine in 2014, or Syria in 2015 — the Kremlin escalates conflicts, launching large-scale military operations. Therefore, a withdrawal of US support for Ukraine could not only worsen the situation for Kyiv but also provoke a new wave of aggression in Europe.
Reduction of Aid to Ukraine After Trump's Inauguration
During an interview with KBS, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky acknowledged that the next US president could significantly alter the level of support for Ukraine, which could have important implications for Ukraine's strategy on the battlefield and on the international stage.
Political scientist Volodymyr Fesenko believes that for Donald Trump, the issue of aid to Ukraine will become an important leverage for pressure. According to him, if Kyiv refuses to agree to Trump's proposals, he may decide to reduce military support.
Meanwhile, the administration of current US President Joe Biden is seeking to expedite the provision of remaining security assistance to Ukraine. Specifically, this involves 6 billion dollars that remain from the 61 billion dollar aid package provided in April 2023. Considering the potential change in policy after Trump’s inauguration, Biden decided to accelerate the process of supplying weapons to Ukraine to utilize these funds before the transition of power in the US.
According to Politico, this 6 billion dollars will be allocated into two packages: 4.3 billion dollars will go towards the removal of existing stockpiles of weapons, while 2.1 billion dollars will be used for purchasing new supplies through contracts with American defense companies. According to Deputy Spokesperson of the US Department of Defense Sabrina Singh, these funds must be used by January 20, 2025, to avoid delays in arms delivery.
At the same time, some members of the Biden administration are confident that the US will continue to support Ukraine due to bipartisan backing in Congress. However, after Trump’s inauguration, the situation may change, and the new administration will have to work with Congress on further policy regarding support for Ukraine.
Meanwhile, on November 10, Trump’s son posted a video on Instagram stating that Ukraine will lose American assistance in just 38 days — likely referring to the inauguration date of his father, scheduled for January 20, 2025.
It is worth noting that Zelensky spoke on the phone with Trump. The President of Ukraine hopes for further cooperation with him. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine stated that they are preparing a meeting between Trump and Zelensky.