Trump could indeed end the war in 24 hours, but at what cost? An analysis by Informator.

Trump could realistically end the war in 24 hours, even though it currently seems impossible. However, the cost would be extremely high— the USA would have to make concessions to Russia regarding its strategic demands. From a geopolitical perspective, this is a much more significant issue than just the war in Ukraine. Perhaps this is why it is not discussed publicly. Instead, among the scenarios for ending the war, the most well-known is the Kitt Kellogg plan, which will likely become Trump's special representative for negotiations with Russia. This is a plan to stop the war based on a Korean scenario.

Where Trump Might Concede

The strategic demands of Russia, which triggered the war, are well known. However, not all of them, even in the most fantastical scenarios, can be considered feasible from the perspective of US policy, particularly due to Trump's stance.

Recall that in 2023, Putin issued an ultimatum to the US and NATO. Both were rejected. Following that, Russia launched an aggressive war against Ukraine.

The conclusion that can be easily drawn is that agreeing to all of Russia's demands from those ultimatums, or even some of them, could lead to a swift end to the war. The paradox is that Ukraine's demands from Putin's ultimatums are only indirectly related. However, they overturn NATO's politics upside down.

Moreover, it is Trump who can satisfy these demands. Of course, not all of them. A number of demands are unacceptable for the US under any circumstances. Negotiations could begin with these:

• The US and NATO must abandon military bases in post-Soviet countries;
• NATO countries must completely roll back military cooperation with Ukraine and Georgia;
• The US must guarantee that NATO will not expand eastward.

It is well known that Trump dislikes NATO and considers it inappropriate that the US spends significant amounts of money funding a military bloc whose goal is to protect Europe (not America). In fact, this is much more than NATO funding from European partners.

On the other hand, there is another known intention of Trump: to negotiate an alliance with Russia against China. This intention may seem fantastical, but the elected US president is certainly ready to take steps towards Putin.

These two factors—Trump's dislike for NATO and his desire to form the broadest coalition against China, even involving Russia—make concessions regarding Putin's strategic demands quite probable. Concessions are the secret side of the negotiation strategy with Russia.

As for the already known aspects of the potential strategy of Trump's team, they are well known:

• Ukraine does not legally renounce the occupied territories, but must fight for them diplomatically.
• Ukraine must also abandon (either permanently or for a significant period) its intention to join NATO.
• After a ceasefire in Ukraine, presidential and parliamentary elections must take place.

Skeptics are already saying that such conditions seem insufficient for Russia. What incentive would Russia have to agree to such conditions if Russian troops are succeeding in Donbas—and if the dynamics continue, they could reach Dnipro, or even Kyiv, within a year?

However, all those points strangely align with Putin's demands, the rejection of which triggered the war. Thus, they would only seem insufficient if considered in isolation.

NATO Needs Ukraine More Than Vice Versa

Informant asked well-known experts what they think about Trump's intention to make concessions to Russia. Currently, they consider such a development unlikely.

Political scientist Oleg Saakyan suspects that Russia will try to deceive Trump. That is, agree to negotiations but not make any final decisions.

During the negotiations, military actions against Ukraine will continue, but at the same time, the US Congress will not approve aid to Ukraine for the next year. Such actions will lead to the exhaustion of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the country as a whole. Russia will seize this opportunity to capture as much territory as possible or even bring Ukraine to its knees:

"I don't see any possibilities to agree with Russia. I currently see the worst-case scenario. That Russia will be able to simulate the negotiation process and drag out Trump's actions, thus prolonging the period when there will be no specific decisions. And this will exhaust Ukraine. So that it doesn't have an increase in support. And this will create even more tension between Europe and the US," he said in a comment to Informant.

Renowned Ukrainian statesman, political and civic leader, former ambassador of Ukraine to Belarus, Roman Bezsmertny believes that even concessions such as halting NATO's expansion eastward will not be made by the United States. In Bezsmertny's opinion, Ukraine has already become an important part of European security, and giving it up would endanger the entire NATO architecture. NATO will defend Ukraine for the sake of its own security:

"After the cables were severed in the Baltic Sea, a bell has already rung: keep in mind—you [NATO countries] also need to defend yourselves somehow. The only country that knows how to defend among all members is Ukraine, which is not in NATO. Therefore, Zelensky is tactically right when he states the necessity of including Ukraine in the Alliance as a prerequisite for negotiations to end the war. NATO currently needs Ukraine more than vice versa," he notes.

At the same time, Bezsmertny is optimistic about Ukraine's prospects in NATO. He points out that no one will disclose the plans that exist in advance.

"The situation will reach a point where a vote will need to be taken [on Ukraine's inclusion in NATO]. The motive may arise much faster than we realize. And the plans that are currently unfolding in NATO should not become known in the Kremlin just moments after reports. So I am more optimistic here," the expert concludes.

Exaggerated Demands of the Kremlin

The Kremlin traditionally uses the principle of "asking for more to get less." This applies to the already mentioned Putin's ultimatum. The demands in it are not limited to points about NATO's eastward expansion and Ukraine's status. It goes much deeper.

Here are some additional points:

• Withdrawal of NATO foreign troops from Poland, Romania, and other Eastern European countries;
• Limiting the presence of the US military fleet outside the US;
• Prohibition for the US to deploy its own nuclear forces outside the US.

Saakyan's version regarding the dragging out of negotiations and exhausting Ukraine may be realized precisely through these points. In his opinion, those negotiations will continue until Trump loses his patience. And until Trump himself starts speaking to Russia in the language of ultimatums.

"How can Trump end the war in 24 hours? Certainly not by surrendering Ukraine or accepting its entry into NATO. In 24 hours, Trump can only end the war if he were to issue an ultimatum to Russia—either they end the war, or the US declares war on Russia, but I give 99.9% that he won't go for it. Russia can't even hypothetically sustain a war with the States. Not at all," the political scientist believes.

What Russia Might Fall For

However, there is a point indicating that Russia does not necessarily have to play the fool during negotiations involving the United States. In the situation, there is a very tempting moment for Putin. The fact is that the very act of negotiation—if any agreements are reached, even minor concessions to Russia—will confirm the myth that the Kremlin has been trying to promote all along: that Russia is a superpower and operates on equal terms with the US.

The personal factor is significant here. Russia may accept even cosmetic concessions from the US. Thus, there is likely still room for negotiations.

However, experts emphasize that in all these arrangements, Ukraine's position cannot be ignored. Military and political expert, political and legal advisor, head of the Center for Military-Legal Studies Oleksandr Musiyenko emphasizes that any concessions to Russia carry significant risks not only for Ukraine, but also for regional and global stability. In his opinion, the Kremlin's demands for NATO to abandon its expansion or to create demilitarized zones are unacceptable under the current geopolitical conditions.

He stresses that Ukraine must receive clear security guarantees, which include not only NATO support but also broader integration into Euro-Atlantic structures. And at least up to this point, things may be heading.

"Currently, processes of transferring affairs are taking place. Trump's team and Trump himself are gradually gaining access to relevant information; they are being provided with data about what is currently happening in the world and the situation. The outgoing administration and the future one are starting to cooperate. In principle, this means that Trump wants to use a certain element of strength and pressure on the Kremlin. Well, of