Ukraine could face defeat in the war by 2025, as an analyst reveals the key issue at hand.

The war of attrition, which in 2024 has completely transformed the Russian invasion, has revealed one of Ukraine's main vulnerabilities (among several): a shortage of human resources. If Ukraine does not alter its strategy and the West does not change its conditions for assistance, Russia will win the war in 2025, suggests former advisor to the U.S. Deputy Secretary of Defense Doug Livermore.

The expert, quoted by CEPA, states that to avoid defeat, the West and the Ukrainian government must radically revise their approach to the war. He notes that both Ukraine and Russia are facing the realities of prolonged large-scale combat, but Ukraine is struggling more with the consequences. Relentless Russian offensives in several regions, particularly in eastern Ukraine, have significantly drained Ukraine's defensive capabilities, despite its efforts to promote and implement its "Victory Plan."

This plan, which was based on obtaining greater military assistance, easing restrictions on weapons supplied by the West, and organizing a decisive counteroffensive, has yet to achieve its main goal—gaining support from the West. This support is also critical for the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

The Ukrainian army, estimated by the expert to consist of around 500,000 active soldiers, is stretched across a wide front, from Kharkiv in the northeast to Kherson in the south. Livermore believes that despite several waves of mobilization, Kyiv is struggling to replenish its battlefield losses (Russia suffers more serious losses but copes with them better than Ukraine), leading to concerns about troop exhaustion and morale. This is exacerbated by the fact that many of Ukraine's most experienced units have significantly degraded after months of intense fighting.

Without significant changes in strategic approach, Kyiv's prospects are becoming increasingly grim. Therefore, Livermore states that Ukraine needs to take action, specifically:

• Lower the minimum conscription age (from 25 to 22 or even 21 years) and implement a more "aggressive" mobilization;
• Negotiate with the EU to mobilize Ukrainian refugees abroad.

The West also needs to assist:

• Lift restrictions on the use of Western weapons for strikes on Russian supply lines, airfields, and command centers, forcing the RF to divert some forces to defense;
• Strengthen NATO's eastern flank and deploy additional units in Eastern Europe;
• Improve the training of Ukrainian troops and provide new capabilities to the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the front—such as providing real-time intelligence and cyber warfare capabilities;
• Enhance sanctions and economic pressure on the RF.

The economy is overheating, but Russia will not stop

In turn, The Washington Post emphasizes that Russia continues to receive enormous revenues from oil sales and is almost not feeling the impact of Western sanctions, including the price caps on oil imposed by G7 countries. However, the Russian economy is under threat of "overheating" due to rapid wage growth, depletion of production capacities, and labor shortages.

The result is near-complete employment in Russia (this includes "efforts" such as recruiting people into the Russian army with substantial monetary bonuses and a vigorous elimination of occupiers in Ukraine) and a sharp rise in wages. The workforce and production capacities of the Russian economy are "almost exhausted," and this is the official view of the situation.

However, WP believes this problem will not deter the RF. According to economists' forecasts, Russia can afford to finance the war in Ukraine for several more years due to enormous revenues from oil sales and the failures of Western sanctions, particularly the price cap on oil imposed by G7 countries, which has not succeeded in reducing Russia's revenues from oil sales.

Zelensky aims to end the war this autumn, or in 2025

At the beginning of September 2024, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, during a meeting of the contact group in the "Ramstein" format, called on Western partners to take measures to stop Russian aggression by this autumn. Later, Zelensky stated that the current situation on the front creates conditions for achieving peace no later than 2025.

At the same time, according to the head of the GUR of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Kyrylo Budanov, several problems will emerge in the Russian economy and society by the summer of 2025, the consequences of which are difficult to predict. While fatigue from hostilities has not become critical, Russia wants to achieve some "victory" in Ukraine "in its understanding" and end the war.

On September 10, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal admitted that when planning the budget for 2024 in conjunction with the IMF, it was considered that the forecast was that the war would last until the summer of 2024. Therefore, the budget included significant expenses for military needs, but mobilization and filling vacancies in the Armed Forces of Ukraine require additional funding.

In autumn 2024, the IMF updated its forecast for the end of the war in Ukraine. According to the baseline forecast, combat operations will cease by the end of 2025. The negative forecast suggests that the war may conclude in mid-2026.