Europopulism: Why its threat to Ukraine is increasing and what role Zelensky plays in this situation.

The Prime Minister of Slovakia, Robert Fico, stated that he will not allow Ukraine to join NATO and plans to travel to Moscow for the celebration of the 80th anniversary of victory over Germany in World War II. These undeniably offensive statements towards Ukraine indicate that the cloud of European populism poses a threat to Ukraine, as Western politicians are pushing Kyiv towards negotiations with Russia. Where did European populism come from, how dangerous is this phenomenon, and what is Zelensky's relation to it? The Informator has analyzed this issue.

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Yes, in Germany, the “Alternative for Germany” could win the next elections. In France, Marine Le Pen still has chances – all of them are populists and are against Ukraine. And it is precisely the populists who received the most votes in the recent European elections.

In the USA, there is Donald Trump, who could also negatively impact the war. For instance, his competitor in the upcoming elections, Kamala Harris, stated that Trump's peace plan is capitulation. And perhaps that is indeed the case.

In fact, Trump has never mentioned capitulation. He expresses contradictory views about Ukraine and the war. There is no paradox in this. Trump says what different audiences want to hear.

Robert Fico does the same. Once he was a responsible politician, but after his defeat, he returned as a populist and "peacemaker."

Currently, it seems that Ukraine will struggle to resist European and American populists. They will win elections by saying exactly what society wants to hear until they form a majority in Europe. This majority may be unstable, but it can cause significant harm to Ukraine.

“The problem with populism is that once people are gathered around feelings, it becomes very difficult to govern them; everything falls apart, and it’s hard to implement real reforms,” predicted British journalist Peter Pomerantsev in his book “This Is Not Propaganda. Adventures in the War Against Reality” in 2020.

What does the 2008 crisis have to do with it?

Populism has always existed in politics. However, it began to gradually form as an influential political force after the 2008 crisis.

This crisis was associated with bank lending. As a result, real incomes in developed countries fell and stopped growing as rapidly as before.

The recovery was slow, and when the first results appeared, the world was hit by the coronavirus pandemic, which once again impacted the economy and society. Next came the full-scale war in Ukraine, which significantly affects the Western world through sanctions and high military aid costs.

It turned out that traditional politicians did not know how to ensure that people started earning more. Thus, those who offer simple answers to complex questions emerged. Populists mostly blame migrants for the issues. They also point to the war in Ukraine and the sanctions it has caused, as well as the costs of economic assistance.

As seen from recent ratings, particularly in Germany, these views are becoming increasingly popular. It may turn out that populists will dominate the upcoming elections in European countries.

This process can be halted by ending the war in Ukraine. The paradox is that this is precisely what Western populists aim to achieve. However, it appears that to restore trust in traditional and responsible politics in Europe, the war must be stopped again to undermine the populists, who attribute all social woes in the West to the costs of countering Russia.

Will populist politicians come to power, but will they be able to hold it for long?

Generally, populists are very diverse. There are left-wing populists, like Sahra Wagenknecht in Germany. There are right-wing ones, such as the Alternative for Germany. Notably, all these political movements are young and emerged after 2008, reaching peak popularity after the coronavirus pandemic. Denial of COVID and conspiracy theories, like “the coronavirus was invented to control people” and “vaccines are harmful to health” – are the very things on which many populists in European countries have gained traction.

However, this is not about governing experience. For example, Slovak Fico was previously a moderate politician. However, he lost the elections and then transformed into a populist. He began to follow public opinion polls and say what people wanted to hear. At the same time, he remained quite effective as a state manager.

Zelensky found himself in the jackpot of populism: what does this mean?

To some extent, yes! The story of how a comedian became president through the popularity of admirers is particularly relevant for European populists.

Of course, he has often been criticized for this by other politicians - especially those who lost to Zelensky in the elections. They called him a comedian, as everyone remembers.

Even before the war, Zelensky was not a bad leader. He demonstrated effectiveness, particularly in the fight against corruption and Russian influence.

He was an effective president at the beginning of the Russian invasion. Nevertheless, Zelensky's victory in the 2019 elections fully matched the trend of European populism, as neither he nor anyone in his circle was an experienced politician. Even though at the beginning he avoided traps designed for the inexperienced. For example, he did not agree to the Russian plan regarding Donbas.

Nonetheless, the government during Zelensky faced the very difficulties that accompany populists. An example can be the law on mobilization.

The state leadership struggled for a long time to choose between the outrage of those forcibly mobilized and the prospect of losing the war. Probably, due to this delay, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are currently facing serious problems in Donbas.

The same applies to the existing arbitrariness of the Territorial Recruitment Centers. The authorities try not to notice this and attribute it to the inexperience of specific executors.

But all this is just the tip of the iceberg before the most significant problem that the president faces.

And all this is an unimaginable issue for Volodymyr Zelensky – his political image also falls under the definition of populism. Thus it is, and now all this has further escalated in the context of war.

In the second half of 2024, President Zelensky has a true jackpot of European populism. This means he either has to start peace negotiations with Russia or wait for the populists to become the dominant force in Europe and then start negotiations under their pressure, but on less favorable terms.

If he starts negotiations now, he will face an attack from political competitors and part of the society, who will consider it a loss of Ukrainian interests. If he delays, there is a threat of the same criticism but much more devastating due to significantly greater losses.

A classic populist in this situation would choose the second option, even at the cost of greater losses. The second option appears more attractive as it does not require making any decision right now. For some time, there will be no outrage or criticism. The remaining time can be spent hoping for a miracle.

“We have lost many settlements and people. Perhaps the president should be allowed to talk to the Russian Federation? It’s a difficult question,” shared his thoughts on this matter with the Informator, a fighter from “Aidar” and the mayor of the currently occupied Oleksandrivsk in Luhansk region, Mykola Hrekov.

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