All about the elections in Georgia: why this vote will be crucial for the country and how it relates to the war in Ukraine.

Georgia is on the brink of a pivotal moment - on Saturday, October 26, parliamentary elections will take place in the country. The tension is extremely high - the election results will reveal whether Tbilisi will return to Eurointegration or continue to exist under the detrimental Russian influence that has become increasingly evident in recent years. The united opposition will compete against the ruling pro-Russian party "Georgian Dream," which has been in power since its establishment in 2012 and aims to remain there for the next four years.

"Georgian Dream" presents the elections as a choice between peace and war, claiming that the opposition's victory would drag Georgia into a conflict with Russia. Meanwhile, the opposition describes the voting as a choice between the West and Russia, as well as between democracy and authoritarianism.

What are Georgia's chances of changing its course, and will this impact the war in Ukraine? Bookmakers and sociologists have already made their predictions.

The Parliament of Georgia: What Does the Legislative Power of the Country Entail?

The Georgian parliament is unicameral, consisting of 150 deputies. Its electoral system, like that of Ukraine, is mixed; 75 are elected based on a proportional system, while the other 75 are elected in single-member districts using a majoritarian system. All parliament members are elected for a term of four years.

During the first round of elections, parties must garner at least 5% of the votes (this is the threshold for entering parliament). To achieve a majority in parliament, parties need to secure 76 mandates, while a constitutional majority requires at least 113 deputies, or over 75% of the total.

On December 11, 2020, the current parliament, elected in the elections held on October 31 and November 21 (where a second round was needed for the majoritarian seats), assumed office. The ruling party "Georgian Dream" won with 48.22% of the votes, obtaining a total of 90 mandates out of 150.

Following October 31, 2020, protests erupted in Georgia led by opposition supporters demanding new parliamentary elections. All opposition parties refused to participate in the second round and called on their supporters to completely ignore the voting. Despite this decision, the ballots included the names of opposition candidates.

Four years have passed, and the leaders of "Georgian Dream" have stated that their goal for the 2024 elections is not just to secure a majority, as in the previous vote, but a constitutional majority (113 out of 150 seats). This would allow them to govern more unilaterally.

Parliamentary Elections in Georgia-2024: Who Is Running?

In 2024, the 150 deputies of the Georgian parliament will be elected entirely through a proportional system, unlike before when a mixed system was used. To enter parliament, parties will need to overcome the five-percent barrier.

If no party manages to secure a majority of seats, a coalition government will need to be formed. This is the scenario that opposition parties are hoping for, as they have signed a charter for joint actions in case of victory in the elections, also accusing the government of leading the country to international isolation and serving Russia's interests.

A total of 19 parties and coalitions will participate in the elections. Among the leading political forces are:

• "Georgian Dream",
• "Coalition for Change - Gvaramia, Melia, Ghirchi, Droa",
• "Unity" ("National Movement", "Strategy Aghmashenebeli", "European Georgia"),
• "Strong Georgia" ("Lelo", "For the People", "Freedom Square", "Citizens"),
• "New Unity - Gvaramia, Melia",
• "Gakharia - For Georgia",
• "Ghirchi" (Iago Khvichia).
  
  

The Notorious "Georgian Dream": What's Wrong with It?

"Georgian Dream" is a pro-Russian political party in Georgia, founded on April 19, 2012, by Russian oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili, who is of Georgian descent. He is a billionaire, the wealthiest person in Georgia, having amassed his fortune during the Russian privatization.

The "Georgian Dream" party won the parliamentary elections in 2012 with the support of 55% of voters. The "United National Movement," led by then-president Mikheil Saakashvili, received 40% of the votes. Since then, all power has been in the hands of the party.

At the beginning of its tenure, "Georgian Dream" was not radically opposed to the West, and the state formally integrated into the European Union. In 2014, Georgia signed an Association Agreement with the EU (which came into force in 2016). Three years later, a visa-free travel regime to the EU was established for Georgian citizens. That same year, integration with the EU and NATO was enshrined in the constitution as a goal of state institutions.

The politics of "Georgian Dream" are largely tied to the personal stance of its founder Bidzina Ivanishvili, political technologists believe. For instance, political scientist and lecturer at Ilia State University in Tbilisi Hans Gutbrot noted that his views shifted dramatically in 2021-2022, becoming extremely negative towards the West.

"This had personal reasons, related to his own struggle with the Swiss bank Credit Suisse," the political scientist recalled. Gutbrot believes that this confrontation caused the oligarch to turn away from Western institutions. "I think this is a mistaken belief, but he believes that the West is personally concerned about his removal from power," says the political scientist.

Since the onset of the large-scale war in Ukraine, "Georgian Dream" has shifted its course towards Russia and adopted a series of controversial laws that could jeopardize the country's European ambitions, especially if the government does not change after the elections. At the end of May 2024, the Georgian parliament finally voted for the bill on "foreign agents", overriding the veto of President Salome Zurabishvili. This document is a copy of the notorious Russian law "on foreign agents." It places free media under government control and allows for the dismantling of freedom of speech. Specifically, the law requires organizations receiving more than 20% of their funding from abroad to register as foreign influence agents and submit income and expenditure declarations.

In July 2024, this law even led to the suspension of Georgia's EU membership process. Additionally, the EU decided to freeze 30 million euros allocated for supporting the Georgian defense sector. The U.S. imposed sanctions on several Georgian officials.

On October 21, 2024, European countries stated that Georgia would not be able to become an EU member unless the government changes its course. The EU reminded that in December 2023, Georgia was granted candidate status for EU membership, but this same foreign agents law halted the Eurointegration process - the document does not comply with the fundamental norms and values of the European Union. The European Union is also considering the possibility of suspending the visa-free regime for Georgian citizens. Nonetheless, about 70-80% of the population consistently supports Georgia's movement towards the EU.

The opposition in Georgia also tried to resist the adoption of the foreign agents law. Protesters took to the streets, but their voices went unheard.

On September 17, 2024, the Georgian parliament approved a bill in its third reading that restricts LGBT rights. Specifically, the document bans same-sex unions, gender change, and "LGBT propaganda." An identical law was also passed in Russia prior to this.

But that’s not all. "Georgian Dream" capitalized on the topic of the war in Ukraine as part of its election campaign.

A month before the vote, at the end of September, GD launched a video and banners showing what might await Georgia in the event of an opposition victory. In black-and-white photographs, the politicians depicted scenes of destroyed and burning buildings in Ukraine, which has been affected by Russian aggression. In contrast, color images showed new and renovated buildings in Georgia. The black-and-white photographs featured the slogan "No to War!" and crossed-out electoral numbers of the four main opposition forces. In the colored images, the slogan read "Choose Peace" with the electoral number of "Georgian Dream."

"I have never seen anything so disgraceful, so offensive to our culture, traditions, history, and faith… What a shame it is to display a poster for your people made in the 'KGB forges,' without dignity and shame," reacted the President of Georgia, Salome Zurabishvili, to this election campaign.

These banners were also criticized by the European Union. In particular, the EU Ambassador to Georgia, Pavel Herczyn