Under Trump's administration, Ukraine may be pressured to relinquish territories, according to The Washington Post.
The recent (and much-anticipated) decision by U.S. President Joe Biden to allow Ukraine to launch ATACMS missiles deeper into Russia is an attempt to strengthen Kyiv’s position ahead of likely – and complex – negotiations to end the war, which he will be urged to pursue, The Washington Post reports on November 26. Many American officials now acknowledge that in the coming months, Ukraine may be drawn into negotiations with Russia to end the war, and it may be compelled to cede territory. Biden's reversal of his previous missile policy is partly aimed at giving Ukraine the strongest possible position.
To this end, the Pentagon, at the behest of the White House, has provided the Ukrainian army with anti-personnel mines. All of this occurs against the backdrop of a "harsh new reality" – the use of North Korean troops by Russia, Ukrainian casualties of personnel and territory, and the election of Donald Trump. These factors have potentially placed Ukraine in its weakest position in the last three years, according to The Washington Post.
There can be debate over whether the "permission for ATACMS" came too late, potentially undermining Ukraine before the White House decided to bolster it. In particular, several partners (not to mention Kyiv) criticize Biden for his indecisiveness, insisting that these actions should have been taken earlier.
However, it cannot be denied that Biden has transferred and continues to transfer significant weaponry to Kyiv, including cluster munitions, artillery shells, air defense systems, and missiles – often without lobbying from Ukraine or, in some cases, even without its request, WP notes. White House officials state that Biden's decisions were driven by changes on the battlefield; he allowed weapons to be provided when the circumstances required it.
"But Biden is acutely aware of the risk that Russian President Vladimir Putin could dangerously escalate the conflict, potentially using nuclear weapons if he feels threatened," officials in the U.S. administration explain.
Yet Biden's fear of escalation with Russia has also significantly influenced his decision to limit arms supplies to Kyiv, WP writes. This fear has often been supported by U.S. intelligence agencies; analysts concluded that, for instance, the powerful ATACMS system could provoke a sharp response from Putin, according to two senior officials in the administration.
Ultimately, Biden allowed the use of ATACMS on Russian territory only after North Korea sent troops to assist Moscow, hoping to send a signal to Pyongyang that it risks suffering significant losses. This was not the first time he hesitated regarding the modernization of Kyiv's firepower, The Washington Post summarizes.
As of November 2024, it is noteworthy that 64% of Ukrainians support negotiations with Russia (a record high). According to the Social Monitoring Center, the majority of Ukrainians do not see the return of the 1991 borders as the main goal of the war. Regarding expectations about the duration of the war, nearly half of the respondents (47%) believe that the conflict will continue for more than a year. 18% of those surveyed stated that the war would last up to a year.
Trump Plans to Bring Ukraine and Russia to the Negotiating Table
The newly elected 47th President of the United States, Donald Trump, has a clear plan to stop it. In short, to achieve peace, it is necessary to initiate direct negotiations between Kyiv and Moscow. Trump does not aim to prolong the military conflict but seeks to end it by any means. All subsequent U.S. actions regarding Ukraine, in Trump's view, should be determined through a negotiation process initiated and controlled by Washington. This was stated by Michael Woltz.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky emphasizes the importance of securing a strong position for Ukraine during any future negotiations. According to him, strengthening both military and diplomatic positions in Kyiv will form the basis for achieving a just peace. In the event of weakness on the battlefield, Ukraine will not be able to secure favorable conditions for peace talks.
The aggressor country seeks to ensure a strong position before possible negotiations. The Russian missile strike on Dnipro using "Oreshnik" has become part of a broader Kremlin strategy – experts believe that such strikes are political maneuvers that could raise the stakes for Russia in future negotiations.