A terrible end or endless horror? What does Trump’s victory mean for Ukraine?

Officially, Donald Trump has not yet won the presidential election, but the results and forecasts indicate that he will return to the White House in 2025. But what will this mean for Ukraine? Will he befriend Russia and its dictator Vladimir Putin, proposing concessions to Kyiv? Or will he end the war in Ukraine, as he promised, in just 24 hours? It's difficult to answer due to Trump's unpredictability, but all signs clearly point to negotiations. An informant has learned what experts think about this.

Trump's victory is like going all in

If Kamala Harris wins, she would continue Joe Biden's policies, and there would be a risk that Ukraine would remain in a prolonged state of war. With Trump, it’s hard to predict – if he were elected by Ukrainians, it would be akin to “going all in.”

Some fear that he would strike a deal with Putin, leading to Ukraine losing occupied territories or even being cut off from American aid altogether.

However, there is a contrasting opinion: Trump is decisive and unafraid of escalation (unlike the Democrats, who have consistently expressed fear about this). This is what former Ukrainian Defense Minister Andrii Zahorodniuk says about these two polar views:

“He could be the one needed to win the war. Because the only way to resolve the situation we find ourselves in is through radical, unconventional solutions,” – he explained in a comment to The Telegraph.

A terrible end or a never-ending horror

The Biden administration found it hard to make decisions regarding aid, so Kamala Harris would have provided us with weapons “by the spoonful” – which would be completely insufficient even to halt the Russian advance on the front. According to political scientist Maksym Yali, for Ukrainians, this would be “a never-ending horror.”

On the other hand, Trump could force both sides to sit at the negotiating table and freeze the war. And that is the scenario of a “terrible end.”

“Of course, there can be no talk of a final end to the war with a peace treaty. But Trump does not promise this; he needs this war to cease at least for a while, as it did during his previous presidency. There was no full-scale war then; a freeze was achieved, and the number of clashes significantly decreased,” – noted the expert on the air of “5 Channel.”

Trump can pressure both Moscow and Kyiv

Vladimir Dubovik, an associate professor of international relations at Odesa National University named after I.I. Mechnikov, believes that Trump could pressure Russia to offer more favorable conditions for Ukraine. However, this will take a lot of time, so Trump will likely try to pressure Kyiv instead.

“It is much easier for him to pressure Kyiv, saying, ‘Okay, let’s negotiate, give up territories, we’ll sign something, at least there will be a break in the war, it will be peace, and everyone will say there are brilliant diplomats, and so on,’” – emphasized the expert in a comment to Oboz.

In his opinion, Trump will manage to influence Ukraine's decisions. According to the Financial Times, this is part of the “peace plan” of the newly elected American (future) leader. It includes the transfer of eastern regions of Ukraine to Russia with freezing the existing frontline, as well as Crimea, which was seized in 2014.

“I think there will be some bargaining, some discussions between Kyiv and Washington. But all the cards, all the trump cards, are still in Trump and Washington's hands because they have weapons, they have money, and we do not,” – noted Dubovik.

At the same time, American journalist Simon Shuster, who spent the early weeks of the full-scale invasion with Zelensky and wrote a book about his metamorphoses titled “Showman,” says that Trump will try to befriend Putin, but the Ukrainian side expects him to realize that negotiating with a dictator is impossible.

“Putin will not agree to any moderate solution. He wants a deal that makes the United States look weak, Trump look pathetic, and Ukraine suffer defeat. So when Trump realizes that this is the only outcome achievable when dealing with Putin, perhaps he will no longer seek a reset of relations,” – noted Shuster in a comment to “TSN”.

So, will Trump provide more weapons?

Vladimir Zelensky acknowledged in an interview with KBS that “the next U.S. president may strengthen or weaken support for Ukraine.” Political scientist Volodymyr Fesenko notes that the issue of aid will be a lever of pressure for Trump. If Ukraine does not agree to his proposals, he may cut military assistance. Therefore, Kyiv, according to his expertise, may agree to negotiations.

“There is a high probability that financial and budgetary assistance will stop. This is not only his position but also that of many Republicans. Trump counts money, and there will be no free assistance. There will only be military aid – in the form of loans/lease. Financial matters will be decided by the new Congress. It’s not certain they will resolve it quickly, but perhaps by early December we will learn about new ideas and proposals,” – noted Fesenko.

Negotiations will not be on Russia's terms, the political scientist believes, but they will still be complicated. And if Putin does not agree to American proposals, it is quite possible that the U.S. will indeed increase military aid to Ukraine.

“Putin wants more unilateral concessions from Ukraine. And this is not very beneficial for Trump, as it would be perceived not only as Ukraine's defeat but also as the U.S.'s defeat,” – emphasized Fesenko and noted that threats to collapse Putin's economy with low oil and gas prices could force him to negotiate.

And Trump has his own “oil” policy

The leader of the “National Resistance” organization, veteran of the Russian-Ukrainian war Oleksiy Svyrydenko, notes in his blog that Trump will try to lower oil prices as much as possible. The Democrats, on the contrary, usually support high prices, as their sponsors, according to him, actively invest in green energy and lobby for this direction.

According to him, lowering prices for “black gold” means serious problems for Russia's economy and its internal situation:

“For Russia, which is already facing escalating economic problems, this could accelerate economic collapse. Likely, either the ruble will sharply devalue and hyperinflation will begin, or most production, especially in the military-industrial complex, will come to a halt,” – noted Svyrydenko.

Perhaps Trump has already begun implementing his plan

During his victory speech, without waiting for the official election results, Trump stated that he would achieve peace before he becomes president. This means effectively before May 20 – the day of his inauguration.

“The first thing I am going to do is call Zelensky and Putin, and I will say that you must reach an agreement,” – Trump stated on November 6.

Senior research fellow at the London Institute of Defense Studies Tim Willacy-Wilson suggests that Trump may call Putin as early as November 6. In that case, a conversation with Zelensky could also be imminent, if it hasn't already occurred – there is no information about that. But from this, likely, the process will begin, the course and outcome of which are entirely unpredictable.

“Any such call will create expectations for resolution through negotiations, and discussions may possibly begin in the early months of 2025,” - CNBC quotes him.