Israel and Lebanon have reached a ceasefire agreement. What does it mean, and is it beneficial for Ukraine?

On the evening of November 26, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, followed by U.S. President Joe Biden and French President Emmanuel Macron, announced that an agreement had been reached for a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon. Terms of the agreement (there are several) are aimed at creating a more stable situation along the border and preventing escalation of conflict between the two countries.

France and the U.S. worked as mediators for the truce in the Middle East, which is why Biden and Macron made a joint statement. However, Donald Trump immediately attempted to "steal" their achievement. His team claimed that Trump's election had such an effect on everyone—that, look, it was enough for Israel and Lebanon to rethink and cease fire. This implies that the ceasefire is also beneficial for Trump. But who else benefits from it and what may be behind the agreement was forecasted in a comment for "Mirror of the Week" on November 27 by Vyacheslav Likhachev, a member of the Expert Council of the Center for Civil Liberties.

Likhachev notes that, in practice, it is about an agreement reached with the participation of the U.S. and France between Israel and the terrorist Shiite organization "Hezbollah". Both sides agreed to cease fire at 4:00 AM on November 27.

Everyone wanted to declare victory

In the final hours before the announced start of the ceasefire, both sides launched particularly intense strikes on enemy territory. According to BBC, hostilities between Israel and Lebanon continued late into the night of November 26. Clearly, the shelling had more of a propaganda than a military significance. Both Israel and "Hezbollah" found it important to declare their victory.

The Shiite terrorists claimed they successfully attacked a military facility in Tel Aviv using drones (likely a falsehood). In turn, the Israeli army attacked the southern suburbs of Beirut less than an hour before the ceasefire.

Netanyahu is currently "in the black"

According to Likhachev, while the "military picture" in this war clearly favors Israel, which could continue to effectively destroy terrorists (thus, there is a belief in the country, especially among supporters of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, that "the army was not allowed to finish off 'Hezbollah'"), both sides were interested in the ceasefire. Because it is important for Tel Aviv to maintain the support of the few remaining allies and reduce pressure from the international community.

The leader began his evening address to the nation with a confident statement: "Citizens of Israel! I promised you victory—and we have won." According to Netanyahu, Israel has pushed "Hezbollah" back decades, along with the organization's leaders, thousands of militants, and key infrastructure.

Benjamin Netanyahu has gained political points—he is the victor. Experts believe that this "eternal" politician has significantly increased his chances of winning the next elections, which are set to take place in Israel in 2026 (and the International Criminal Court's warrant has likely added to Netanyahu's popularity within Israel rather than decreased his ratings). However, no one in Israel will forget the issue of releasing hostages from the hands of Hamas, which has stalled.

Israel will be able to focus on Hamas and the hostages

Thus, the Israeli government also aimed to create conditions that would allow it to focus on the unfinished tasks of freeing hostages and concluding hostilities in the Gaza Strip, which have clearly dragged on too long.

The release of hostages remains the government's biggest headache. However, now that the terrorists in the Gaza Strip are left face-to-face with the Israeli army, without the support of the most capable ally from the pro-Iranian "axis of resistance," there is hope that Hamas leadership will become more amenable, and reaching an agreement with them will become more feasible.

The U.S. sought peace, and—paradoxically—it benefits Iran

Likhachev does not stop at why France became the mediator in the ceasefire. The most obvious reason is that this country has traditionally been influential in Lebanon (it, let us remind you, created this state and "left" Lebanon in 1946). Whether France had any special interests or not remains unclear. However, the U.S. was seriously interested in the ceasefire.

The expert recalls that in the book "War" by American investigative journalist Bob Woodward, it is stated that the biggest nightmare for Washington after the massacre of October 7, 2023, organized by Hamas, was the anticipation of the start of hostilities between Israel and "Hezbollah." And this nightmare has occurred.

"Now the outgoing Joe Biden administration has received a farewell gift from a difficult ally. Paradoxically, this became possible precisely because Tel Aviv stubbornly refused to heed Washington's warnings and demonstrated the ability to speak to enemies in the language of power", writes Likhachev.

He emphasizes that Iran, the patron of "Hezbollah," is also interested in peace at this stage. After the death of the group's leader Hassan Nasrallah, Tehran has practically taken direct control of the organization. It seems that the Ayatollah regime has realized that it cannot currently counter Israel's military capabilities and preferred to retreat.

However, what is happening globally is a bad sign and a poor scenario for Iran, the expert believes. In the strategic perspective, there is a noticeable trend towards a change in the balance of power in the Middle East. Having suffered significant losses on multiple fronts, Iran is forced to reduce its offensive momentum. Likhachev is confident that the formal agreement between Israel and Lebanon has become possible in the context of a much broader understanding between the United States and Iran.

"Considering Donald Trump's obvious priorities, the possibility of further normalization of relations between Israel and Arab countries, primarily Saudi Arabia, does not seem so fantastic. In this perspective, an unstable peace without ironclad guarantees and conditions that none of the parties is fully satisfied with appears to be the first step towards de-escalation in the region as a whole. The entire world, including Ukraine, is undoubtedly interested in such a development of events", the expert concludes.

Full text of the agreement between Israel and Lebanon

So far, the exact terms of the agreement have not been published. However, it is reported that the agreement does not affect Israel's war against Hamas in Gaza. This agreement aims to create a more stable situation along the border and prevent escalation of conflict between the two countries. However, Israeli journalist Oleksiy Zheleznov has preliminarily published some points of the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon:

• "Hezbollah" and other armed groups in Lebanese territory commit not to carry out any attacking actions against Israel.
• Israel, in turn, commits not to undertake any military attacks against targets in Lebanon, including ground, air, and naval operations.
• Israel and Lebanon recognize the importance of adhering to UN Security Council Resolution 1701.
• The obligations of the parties do not exclude their rights to self-defense in accordance with international law.
• Only the official security forces and army of Lebanon have the right to possess weapons or deploy armed forces in southern Lebanon.
• Any sale, supply, or production of weapons in Lebanon will be under the control and supervision of the Lebanese government.
• All illegal enterprises related to weapon production will be liquidated.
• All military infrastructures and positions that violate these obligations will be dismantled, and illegal weapons confiscated.
• A joint committee, agreed upon by both parties, will be established to monitor and ensure compliance with these obligations.
• Israel and Lebanon will report any possible violations of the agreement to the joint committee and UN peacekeeping forces in Lebanon (UNIFIL).
• Lebanon will deploy its official security forces and army along all borders, checkpoints, and lines defining the southern region, as outlined in the deployment plan.
• Israel will gradually withdraw its forces from southern Lebanon behind the "Blue Line" within 60 days.
• The U.S. will take on mediation in indirect negotiations between Israel and Lebanon to establish an officially recognized land border.

Israel and Lebanon have agreed to a ceasefire

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that he is ready to present the ceasefire agreement to the Cabinet. He claimed that "Hezbollah is no longer what it was," and Israel has pushed the group "back decades." He added that the duration of the ceasefire "depends on what happens in Lebanon."

Tensions between the countries persisted for nearly 14 months and intensified after the massive Hamas attack on Israel in October 2023. In response, Israel carried out intense airstrikes on Hamas positions and increased attention to the northern border, where the threat from "Hezbollah" remains. Lebanon, supported by Iran, accused Israel of